We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.

The probability that a tennis player wins the first set of a match is \(\frac{3}{5}\). If she wins the first set, the probability that she wins the second set is \(\frac{9}{10}\). If she loses the ...

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In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability ...